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Democrats — freaked out by premature polls, despondent over delays in former president Donald Trump’s trials and still suffering from flashbacks of the 2016 election — are prone to forget the considerable advantages their own side has over his MAGA cult following. To say polls show President Biden would lose “if the election were held today,” is silly. The election isn’t today, and its outcome will largely depend on what happens between now and then.
The election is no more predetermined eight months before Election Day than a Super Bowl winner is decided before the start of the regular season. Considering how much a single speech, such as the State of the Union, or a criminal conviction in one of Trump’s four criminal indictments might change perceptions, no one should underestimate the array of factors that will affect the direction of the race.
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As Donald H. Rumsfeld famously said, there are known knowns (e.g., a MAGA movement cocooned from reality), known unknowns (e.g., whether Trump will be convicted) and unknown unknowns (e.g., an international event, a natural disaster necessitating a federal response). Faced with uncertainty, people seek refuge in irrelevant polling. Time is better spent sizing up the comparative advantages of the two sides, which, over time, take on larger significance.
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We are all too familiar with Trump’s iron lock on his cult following and the media’s obsession with normalizing him. Shamelessness, some would say, is a superpower. But Biden has real advantages (in addition to sanity, a good governing record and experience) that Democrats should not take for granted. Since the State of the Union, several of these lesser-known advantages have become more evident.
First, Biden has self-awareness. He knows he is old and can joke about it. He and his team understand just how underestimated he is, making it easy to defy expectations. His opening ad was a tour de force in self-deprecation. A little self-awareness and a sense of humor go a long way, as evidenced by the edgier Biden media operation (e.g. Dark Brandon, the “presidential advice” video).
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Trump, by contrast, fails to grasp when he is babbling, giving ammunition to his opponent or further incriminating himself. (The lack of self-awareness shows throughout the Republican Party and leads to missteps, such as the ridiculed response to the State of the Union.) Trump’s cluelessness might become more damaging to him as time goes on. His temper tantrums in courtrooms and boasts about his tyrannical agenda hurt him outside of his hardcore base. In sum, one campaign is flying blind, utterly dependent on a narcissistic figure degenerating under pressure; the other can adjust, improvise and compensate.
Second, Biden has concrete advantages in resources. He landed a mammoth fundraising haul after the State of the Union, and none of his reserves need to be diverted toward astronomical legal bills. He has cohesive and functioning state parties, unlike Trump, and an impressive state-by-state operation to turn out the vote and marshal volunteers, something Trump also lacks so far. Biden hit the airwaves with a $30 million ad buy and has already staffed personnel in key states. Biden’s ability to travel anywhere as frequently as he wants (and hence run a more, not less, vigorous campaign than Trump) and tout popular projects will also bolster him as the election draws near.
Biden also benefits from the enormously effective surrogates such as Jill Biden and the more combative, confident Vice President Harris, who connects with key parts of the Democrats’ base. That’s not to mention polished members of the administration and other elected Democrats (from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to California Gov. Gavin Newsom). Some even go on Fox News (!) to reach members of Trump’s audience, giving them news they would never hear.
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Trump, on the other hand, could not even keep Truth Social from crashing during the State of the Union, which deprived Trump of his rapid response. He is low on money, behind on organization and even now keeps bad-mouthing mail-in voting, a critical turnout mechanism. This week, he fired a slew of experienced staffers from the Republican National Committee, no doubt to be replaced by MAGA loyalists. Expect unquestioned obedience, once again, to replace competence as the chief criteria for Trump’s staff. (He rarely hired “only the best” people.)
Third, there is something to be said for optimism and good cheer. Trump paints America as a hellscape; his view of a racial invasion and rampant crime (that is statistically nonexistent) is meant to keep his followers in a state of frenzy and despair. But the exhausting drama and aura of foreboding that hangs over Trump might not wear well. It surely didn’t while he was president and campaigning in 2020. Pundits sometimes portray Biden as offering “normalcy.” While it is not exactly “hope and change,” he does convey unalloyed faith in America and the promise of progress that Americans historically embrace.
It’s no coincidence that Vanderbilt professor and acclaimed author Jon Meacham, Biden’s historian-on-call, is around to help channel the president’s natural optimism into a sweeping image of American resilience. “An encyclopedic historical recall and deeply studied presidential biographies give Meacham immense value to Biden,” the Nashville Scene reported. “The two openly embrace American exceptionalism and share a disdain for Trump, Biden’s political opponent and Meacham’s Lucifer, whose chief sins are contesting election results and marching on the Capitol.” Meacham and Biden are betting that Americans want to be proud, inspired and reassured by their president. If they are right, Biden will do just fine.
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Biden’s advantages don’t guarantee he will win any more than polls this far out (and often within the margin of error) ensure Trump will win. But Biden’s true advantages make it more likely he will reach, inspire and persuade more voters than Trump. That, after all, is what campaigns are all about.
Distinguished person of the week
George Stephanopoulos did what other mainstream news interviewers generally have not had the nerve to do: Confront a Trump supporter about his adjudication for sexual abuse against E. Jean Carroll. To illustrate the tenacity required to hold Republicans accountable, it is worthwhile to quote at length his exchange with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.):
STEPHANOPOULOS: Congresswoman, thanks for joining us this morning.You endorsed Donald Trump for president. Judges in two separate juries have found him liable for rape and for defaming a victim of that rape. How do you square your endorsement of Donald Trump with the testimony we just saw?MACE: Well, I will tell you, I was raped at the age of 16, and any rape victim will tell you, I’ve lived for 30 years with an incredible amount of shame over being raped. I didn’t come forward because of that judgment and shame that I felt.And it’s a shame that you will never feel, George, and I’m not going to sit here on your show and be asked a question meant to shame me about another potential rape victim. I’m not going to do that.STEPHANOPOULOS: It’s actually not about shaming you. It’s a question about Donald Trump.MACE: No, you are shaming me.STEPHANOPOULOS: You've endorsed Donald Trump for president.MACE: Right.STEPHANOPOULOS: Donald Trump has been found liable for rape by a jury. Donald Trump has been found liable for defaming the victim of that rape by a jury. It's been affirmed by a judge. He repeated —MACE: It’s not a criminal court case, number one. Number two, I live with shame, and you're asking me a question about my political choices trying to shame me as a rape victim and find it disgusting.And quite frankly, E. Jean Carroll’s comments when she did get the judgment joking about what she was going to buy, it doesn't — it makes it harder for women to come forward when they make a mockery out of rape, when they joke about it. It’s not okay.STEPHANOPOULOS: Doesn’t it make it harder for women to come forward when they’re defamed by presidential candidates?MACE: It makes it harder when other women joked about it and she’s joked about it. I find it offensive. And also I find it offensive that you are trying to shame me with this question.STEPHANOPOULOS: I’m not trying to shame you at all. In fact —MACE: You are. I have dealt with this for 30 years. You know how hard it was to tell my story five years ago when they were doing a fetal heartbeat bill, when there were no exceptions for rape, incest or life — or — and — rape or incest in there? I had to tell my story because no other woman was coming forward.STEPHANOPOULOS: I'm just asking —MACE: No rape victims were represented. And you’re trying to shame me this morning.STEPHANOPOULOS: I'm just asking you —MACE: And I find it offensive. And this is why women won’t come forward.STEPHANOPOULOS: Women won’t come forward because they're defamed by those who perpetrate rape. Donald Trump has been —MACE: They are judged, and they’re shamed, and you’re trying to shame me this morning. I think it’s disgusting.STEPHANOPOULOS: I’m — I’m not — I’m not shaming you at all. I called you courageous.MACE: I told my story. It took me 25 years to tell my story. I was judged for it. I still get judged for it today.STEPHANOPOULOS: I’m asking you a very simple question, explain what —MACE: And I answered it. You’re shaming me for my political choices.STEPHANOPOULOS: No, I’m not — I’m asking you a question about why you endorsed someone who’s been found liable for rape. Just answer the question.MACE: It was not a criminal court. This was — this was a — it was a civil court.STEPHANOPOULOS: It was a civil court that found him liable for rape.MACE: And, by the way, she joked about the judgment and what she was going to do with all that money. And I find that offensive.STEPHANOPOULOS: I'm asking you about the man who’s —MACE: But as a rape victim who’s been shamed for years now because of her rape, you're trying to shame me again by asking me this political question.STEPHANOPOULOS: You’ve — you've repeat that — you’ve repeated that again and again and again.MACE: I think it’s offensive. As a woman, I find your — I find it offensive. For my political choices —STEPHANOPOULOS: I'm asking —MACE: I have endorsed the man that I believe is best for our country. It's not Joe Biden. And you looked at the dueling rallies yesterday in Georgia. Laken Riley's family was with Donald Trump. They weren’t with Joe Biden. The same guy yesterday that apologized for calling her killer an illegal, who was an illegal. And here you are trying to shame a rape victim. I find it disgusting.STEPHANOPOULOS: I mean you keep saying I’m shaming you. There’s nothing I –MACE: You are. The question — it is. It is.STEPHANOPOULOS: How is the question asking you about a presidential candidate who’s been —MACE: You’re asking a rape victim.STEPHANOPOULOS: I’m – and there’s no question about that. And you’re — you've courageously talked about that.MACE: You’re questioning my political choices because I’ve been raped. I think that’s disgusting.STEPHANOPOULOS: No, I’m questioning your political choices because you're supporting someone who’s been found liable for rape.MACE: You’re shaming me. You’re trying to shame me.STEPHANOPOULOS: Actually, I’m not trying to shame you.MACE: You are. That’s exactly what you’re doing.STEPHANOPOULOS: You’re not answering the question.MACE: And I think it’s disgusting.STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, you’re welcome to say that, but you also have to answer the question.MACE: I did.STEPHANOPOULOS: Why are you supporting someone who’s been found liable for rape?MACE: I just answered your question.STEPHANOPOULOS: What is the answer?MACE: He was not – he was not found guilty in a civil — in a criminal court of law. He — it was a civil — it was sexual abuse. It wasn’t actually rape, by the way. And E. Jean Carroll joked about all the money she’s going to get and made a mockery out of — out of this case. And I think that's offensive.There is a reason why women don’t come forward. And when you have someone who says that they're raped and they make a mockery out of this civil court judgment, it’s offensive to other women. It makes it harder for other women to come forward when another woman has made a mockery of it.STEPHANOPOULOS: You said women don’t come forward because they are afraid. They are afraid because they are defamed by those who commit —MACE: They’re judged and shamed, like you’re trying to shame me this morning.STEPHANOPOULOS: They — they are — they are afraid to come forward, as you said, because they are defamed by those who commit the rape.MACE: And they’re judged.STEPHANOPOULOS: That’s what Donald Trump has been found guilty of doing.MACE: He defended himself over that and denies that it ever happened. But he was not found guilty in a criminal court of law. It was a civil judgment over sexual abuse.STEPHANOPOULOS: So is that the distinction you’re making, a civil judgment is — is — is okay, but a criminal judgment is not?MACE: This is different. And — and they didn't even input all of the evidence into the – the civil case either because some of the information she provided wasn't even accurate or correct. But to sit here and ask me, as a rape victim, to — to try to shame me for my political choices, is wrong. And I think it's offensive. And you —STEPHANOPOULOS: You can — you can repeat that again and again and again and again and again and I’ve done nothing to shame you.MACE: And I’m going to because I find it deeply offensive.STEPHANOPOULOS: You don't find it offensive that Donald Trump has been found liable for rape?MACE: I find it offensive, as a rape victim, that you're trying to shame me for my political choices. And I've said again repeatedly, E. Jean Carroll has made a mockery out of rape by joking about it. I don’t find that funny. Rape is not funny.STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, you’ve — you’ve made it perfectly clear.MACE: Rape is serious.STEPHANOPOULOS: You’ve made it perfectly clear, you’re comfortable –MACE: Rape is serious. It’s not funny.STEPHANOPOULOS: It is serious.
The conversation then moved to Trump’s conduct on Jan. 6, 2021 which Mace at one time said was disqualifying for Trump. After going around and around, the conversation ended this way:
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STEPHANOPOULOS: So you’ve made it very clear you’re comfortable with Donald Trump being found liable for rape and you’re comfortable with his actions on Jan. 6.MACE: I didn’t say I was comfortable with — you’re putting words into my mouth.STEPHANOPOULOS: You wouldn’t condemn it.MACE: You’re — no, you’re putting words into my mouth.STEPHANOPOULOS: Are you comfortable with it?MACE: I support Donald Trump for president. I just endorsed him ...STEPHANOPOULOS: So you’re comfortable with it ...MACE: ... a few weeks ago.STEPHANOPOULOS: ... even though he’s been found liable for rape?MACE: In a civil judgment, not a criminal court case. But you go ahead and keep shaming women who have been raped. Good luck with that.STEPHANOPOULOS: Thank you for joining us. We’ll be right back.
Stephanopoulos demonstrated how a tough, unrelenting interview can review the utter shamelessness, amorality and dishonesty of the MAGA enablers. Interviewers cannot be put off by blame-shifting and deflection. Responsible journalism requires the interview to keep at it, at the risk of drawing the interviewee’s ire.
In this case, there still were millions of Americans who did not know Trump had been adjudicated civilly to be a rapist. Now, more will be forced to wrestle with their own willingness to elect such a vile figure.
Something different
As frequent readers of this newsletter know, I am a city gal who loves to travel to other cities. This week, I did something different. A small group of us went out to Indian Wells, Calif., for some sun, warm temperatures, hiking and tennis, specifically to watch the BNP Paribas Open.
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The tennis was thrilling. But to my surprise, equally as exhilarating was the moon-like environment in Joshua Tree National Park. If you spend most of your time in cities, or even in leafy environs, you can forget how beautiful, stark and awe-inspiring the desert landscape can be.
At times, we felt transported to Tatooine. The sheer force of nature in such a desolate area to sustain plants and to form gigantic rock formations takes your breath way. To get away from it all (cell reception included) — farther psychologically and visually than a journey to a foreign capital — was a blessing and reset, a much-needed reminder that we now and then need to escape from urban life, from politics and from the constant media chatter that clogs our brains and rattles our nerves. Go away for a day or a week or a month to someplace remote. You might find when you get back that you’ve missed nothing and discovered something quite precious.
Every other Wednesday at noon, I host a live Q&A with readers. Submit a question for the next one.
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This week, I review Democrats’ considerable campaign advantages that they might not fully appreciate, choose my distinguished person of the week and share something off the beaten path.
Democrats — freaked out by premature polls, despondent over delays in former president Donald Trump’s trials and still suffering from flashbacks of the 2016 election — are prone to forget the considerable advantages their own side has over his MAGA cult following. To say polls show President Biden would lose “if the election were held today,” is silly. The election isn’t today, and its outcome will largely depend on what happens between now and then.
The election is no more predetermined eight months before Election Day than a Super Bowl winner is decided before the start of the regular season. Considering how much a single speech, such as the State of the Union, or a criminal conviction in one of Trump’s four criminal indictments might change perceptions, no one should underestimate the array of factors that will affect the direction of the race.
As Donald H. Rumsfeld famously said, there are known knowns (e.g., a MAGA movement cocooned from reality), known unknowns (e.g., whether Trump will be convicted) and unknown unknowns (e.g., an international event, a natural disaster necessitating a federal response). Faced with uncertainty, people seek refuge in irrelevant polling. Time is better spent sizing up the comparative advantages of the two sides, which, over time, take on larger significance.
We are all too familiar with Trump’s iron lock on his cult following and the media’s obsession with normalizing him. Shamelessness, some would say, is a superpower. But Biden has real advantages (in addition to sanity, a good governing record and experience) that Democrats should not take for granted. Since the State of the Union, several of these lesser-known advantages have become more evident.
First, Biden has self-awareness. He knows he is old and can joke about it. He and his team understand just how underestimated he is, making it easy to defy expectations. His opening ad was a tour de force in self-deprecation. A little self-awareness and a sense of humor go a long way, as evidenced by the edgier Biden media operation (e.g. Dark Brandon, the “presidential advice” video).
Trump, by contrast, fails to grasp when he is babbling, giving ammunition to his opponent or further incriminating himself. (The lack of self-awareness shows throughout the Republican Party and leads to missteps, such as the ridiculed response to the State of the Union.) Trump’s cluelessness might become more damaging to him as time goes on. His temper tantrums in courtrooms and boasts about his tyrannical agenda hurt him outside of his hardcore base. In sum, one campaign is flying blind, utterly dependent on a narcissistic figure degenerating under pressure; the other can adjust, improvise and compensate.
Second, Biden has concrete advantages in resources. He landed a mammoth fundraising haul after the State of the Union, and none of his reserves need to be diverted toward astronomical legal bills. He has cohesive and functioning state parties, unlike Trump, and an impressive state-by-state operation to turn out the vote and marshal volunteers, something Trump also lacks so far. Biden hit the airwaves with a $30 million ad buy and has already staffed personnel in key states. Biden’s ability to travel anywhere as frequently as he wants (and hence run a more, not less, vigorous campaign than Trump) and tout popular projects will also bolster him as the election draws near.
Biden also benefits from the enormously effective surrogates such as Jill Biden and the more combative, confident Vice President Harris, who connects with key parts of the Democrats’ base. That’s not to mention polished members of the administration and other elected Democrats (from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to California Gov. Gavin Newsom). Some even go on Fox News (!) to reach members of Trump’s audience, giving them news they would never hear.
Trump, on the other hand, could not even keep Truth Social from crashing during the State of the Union, which deprived Trump of his rapid response. He is low on money, behind on organization and even now keeps bad-mouthing mail-in voting, a critical turnout mechanism. This week, he fired a slew of experienced staffers from the Republican National Committee, no doubt to be replaced by MAGA loyalists. Expect unquestioned obedience, once again, to replace competence as the chief criteria for Trump’s staff. (He rarely hired “only the best” people.)
Third, there is something to be said for optimism and good cheer. Trump paints America as a hellscape; his view of a racial invasion and rampant crime (that is statistically nonexistent) is meant to keep his followers in a state of frenzy and despair. But the exhausting drama and aura of foreboding that hangs over Trump might not wear well. It surely didn’t while he was president and campaigning in 2020. Pundits sometimes portray Biden as offering “normalcy.” While it is not exactly “hope and change,” he does convey unalloyed faith in America and the promise of progress that Americans historically embrace.
It’s no coincidence that Vanderbilt professor and acclaimed author Jon Meacham, Biden’s historian-on-call, is around to help channel the president’s natural optimism into a sweeping image of American resilience. “An encyclopedic historical recall and deeply studied presidential biographies give Meacham immense value to Biden,” the Nashville Scene reported. “The two openly embrace American exceptionalism and share a disdain for Trump, Biden’s political opponent and Meacham’s Lucifer, whose chief sins are contesting election results and marching on the Capitol.” Meacham and Biden are betting that Americans want to be proud, inspired and reassured by their president. If they are right, Biden will do just fine.
Biden’s advantages don’t guarantee he will win any more than polls this far out (and often within the margin of error) ensure Trump will win. But Biden’s true advantages make it more likely he will reach, inspire and persuade more voters than Trump. That, after all, is what campaigns are all about.
George Stephanopoulos did what other mainstream news interviewers generally have not had the nerve to do: Confront a Trump supporter about his adjudication for sexual abuse against E. Jean Carroll. To illustrate the tenacity required to hold Republicans accountable, it is worthwhile to quote at length his exchange with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.):
The conversation then moved to Trump’s conduct on Jan. 6, 2021 which Mace at one time said was disqualifying for Trump. After going around and around, the conversation ended this way:
Stephanopoulos demonstrated how a tough, unrelenting interview can review the utter shamelessness, amorality and dishonesty of the MAGA enablers. Interviewers cannot be put off by blame-shifting and deflection. Responsible journalism requires the interview to keep at it, at the risk of drawing the interviewee’s ire.
In this case, there still were millions of Americans who did not know Trump had been adjudicated civilly to be a rapist. Now, more will be forced to wrestle with their own willingness to elect such a vile figure.
As frequent readers of this newsletter know, I am a city gal who loves to travel to other cities. This week, I did something different. A small group of us went out to Indian Wells, Calif., for some sun, warm temperatures, hiking and tennis, specifically to watch the BNP Paribas Open.
The tennis was thrilling. But to my surprise, equally as exhilarating was the moon-like environment in Joshua Tree National Park. If you spend most of your time in cities, or even in leafy environs, you can forget how beautiful, stark and awe-inspiring the desert landscape can be.
At times, we felt transported to Tatooine. The sheer force of nature in such a desolate area to sustain plants and to form gigantic rock formations takes your breath way. To get away from it all (cell reception included) — farther psychologically and visually than a journey to a foreign capital — was a blessing and reset, a much-needed reminder that we now and then need to escape from urban life, from politics and from the constant media chatter that clogs our brains and rattles our nerves. Go away for a day or a week or a month to someplace remote. You might find when you get back that you’ve missed nothing and discovered something quite precious.
Every other Wednesday at noon, I host a live Q&A with readers. Submit a question for the next one.
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