Sign up
Barring some unlikely and unexpected events, Donald Trump is going to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. The former president has won Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s likely to win South Carolina, and he might well win every primary and caucus on the rest of the schedule.
But Nikki Haley should stick around and challenge him anyway.
The former U.N. ambassador should stick around because only two states have held nominating contests. The rest of us would like some say, even if one candidate is an overwhelming favorite. What is the point of a presidential primary process if all the candidates except one drop out shortly after it starts?
While anti-Trump or Trump-skeptical Republicans are a minority in the GOP, so far, the evidence suggests they’re a sizable minority — 49 percent of the participants in the Iowa Republican caucuses and 45 percent of the participants in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Yes, when all is said and done in this primary, Trump is almost certainly going to finish with more delegates, but a candidate needs 1,215 to win the nomination. Right now, Trump has 32 delegates, Haley has 17 delegates, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has nine, and Vivek Ramaswamy has three.
Tuesday night, Trump finished with only two more delegates than Haley did. That’s the defeat that should convince Haley to throw in the towel?
Haley conceded defeat in New Hampshire but defiantly reminded voters about how Trump mixed her up with former speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) while rambling about Jan. 6, 2021; Trump responded both online and offline with a volcanic eruption of ridicule and name-calling. At a time when most front-runners would be attempting to unify the party, Trump is pledging retribution for Haley’s donors. Even when he wins, he’s full of rage over some perceived or imagined slight and finds new ways to repel people who were already skeptical about him. If this dynamic continues, Haley’s share of the vote is likely to continue to be less than half but still respectable, sizable minority.
Trump is convinced he’s perfect just the way he is, that he’s cruising toward a landslide victory, that any President Biden reelection would just be proof of another stolen election. By staying in the race, Haley is saying: No, none of this is good. This is not what the Republican Party should represent. There are Republicans and independents in this world who want the GOP to stand for something better.
This election year is either going to end in Trump making one of the most improbable comebacks in American history or another defeat for the GOP — the fourth in five cycles and the fifth straight loss in the popular vote. (Trump’s highest percentage in the popular vote so far was 46.9 percent in 2020.)
Some will argue that Haley’s numbers in New Hampshire were driven in large part by independents repelled by Trump. So what? The vote of an independent counts every bit as much as the vote of a registered Republican. Haley’s home state of South Carolina does not have registration by party, so the next presidential primary will be open to all registered voters. Anyone — Republican, Democrat or independent — who just shows up at the polling place can ask for a GOP or Democratic ballot.
With no competitive race on the Democratic side, South Carolina independents and Democrats could vote for Haley in significant numbers. There are 15 states that, in effect, have open primaries like South Carolina’s. There are seven more that allow unaffiliated voters to vote in either party’s primaries. That’s a lot of places where former Republicans, independents and Democrats can cast a ballot for Haley in the coming months.
Haley could win anywhere from 30 to 45 percent of the votes in most, or even all, of the primaries from here on out. She could walk into the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee with a giant pile of delegates and a heck of a lot of leverage. In an ordinary circumstance, a second-place finisher could conceivably force the front-runner to select her as his running mate, to unify the party. Then again, Trump’s previous vice president ran afoul of an angry mob pledging to hang him because he wouldn’t declare Trump the winner in 2020, so that gig isn’t quite as appealing as it normally is.
Haley can drop out now and be another DeSantis. Or, having gotten the one-on-one matchup that eluded Trump’s Republican rivals in 2016 and the rest of the 2024 slate, Haley can fight on until the last contests, on June 4. If you’re going to run for the Republican presidential nomination, don’t do it halfway.
Keep on running, Nikki. Keep on running.
12
8
28.01.2024
Sign upBarring some unlikely and unexpected events, Donald Trump is going to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. The former president has won Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s likely to win South Carolina, and he might well win every primary and caucus on the rest of the schedule.
But Nikki Haley should stick around and challenge him anyway.
The former U.N. ambassador should stick around because only two states have held nominating contests. The rest of us would like some say, even if one candidate is an overwhelming favorite. What is the point of a presidential primary process if all the candidates except one drop out shortly after it starts?
While anti-Trump or Trump-skeptical Republicans are a minority in the GOP, so far, the evidence suggests they’re a sizable minority — 49 percent of the participants in the Iowa Republican caucuses and 45 percent of the participants in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Yes, when all is said and done in this primary, Trump is almost certainly going to finish with more delegates, but a candidate needs 1,215 to win the nomination. Right now, Trump has........
© Washington Post
visit website
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Rami G Khouri
Mort Laitner
Donald Low
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Nikkei Editorial
