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“Our allies understand that we have domestic politics just as they do, and they can look at progress through our Congress,” Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs James O’Brien told reporters Tuesday. “I believe the U.S. will do the right thing.”
In Congress, confidence is less abundant. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has declared he won’t take up the Senate bill, and is under pressure from his MAGA members to not pass any Ukraine aid at all. Privately, he is telling his caucus he will write his own bill and that process won’t even start until next month, congressional sources told me.
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So much for the short term. European allies are simultaneously freaking out about the United States’ long-term commitment to the continent after former president Donald Trump threatened during a campaign rally this week to leave NATO countries to the whims of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Regarding that, U.S. officials in Munich will try to calm nerves by pointing out that a majority of Americans still support NATO. But they can’t say Trump won’t win and they can’t be sure Trump won’t make good on such threats.
“I can’t make any promises, and I won’t make any promises. But we are fighting really hard for the Ukraine aid,” Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a member of the House delegation in Munich, told me. “We are going there to show that America still has folks who are eager to engage and are pushing hard for America to lead.”
Crow traveled to Kyiv and met with Zelensky last week, along with Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.). Hill told me he is trying to educate his GOP colleagues about how the aid is spent and monitored.
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More than half of it goes back into the U.S. economy via weapons purchases or to replenish U.S. weapons stocks. European countries contribute more total financial aid than the United States and several give a higher share of their gross domestic product.
Moreover, the consequences of pulling support now would be drastic. The Ukrainian economy could collapse, causing a ripple effect throughout Europe and the world. The prospect of living (or dying) under Russian occupation could push millions more Ukrainian refugees into Europe with destabilizing effects. NATO allies would lose faith in the alliance’s credibility. Autocrats in the Middle East and Asia would be emboldened.
“The American people don’t want Putin to win. They know this is bad for our national security,” Hill told me. “It’s time to put an end to Russian adventurism.”
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For the MAGA crowd, none of these considerations seem to matter. For them, ending the Ukraine aid effort is the goal. And to win, all they must do is stop the government from functioning. To a large degree, they have already succeeded. Owing to their obstructionism, Congress has not passed any Ukraine appropriations in the past 14 months.
This sad state of affairs is not primarily the Biden administration’s fault. But rather than pretend everything will be fine, the Biden team ought to be more honest with its allies. The Ukraine aid is not coming soon. It might not come at all. Trump might win. He might pull the United States out of NATO.
These are all scenarios that many people in both parties in Washington will try to prevent. But if the Biden team would admit that these scenarios might not be avoidable, at least Europeans and Ukrainians could proceed with prudent hedging and contingency planning.
For more than six decades, U.S. officials have been traveling to Munich to make sure Europeans know that in the end, the United States will “do the right thing” — sometimes after exhausting all other options. This year, that simply might not be true.
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Several senior U.S. national security officials are headed to Europe this weekend to try to reassure nervous allies that the United States will continue leading the free world and that Washington can still function. But why should they believe it? Despite the Biden team’s hopeful rhetoric, they have no way to promise that the United States will come through with more aid to Ukraine soon or stand by Europe over the long term.
Vice President Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and multiple bipartisan congressional delegations will converge Friday at the annual Munich Security Conference, where world leaders, academics and businesspeople have convened to champion transatlantic unity and the strength of the West for more than six decades. Harris and Blinken will each give public remarks and meet with several leaders, including an expected but not publicly confirmed meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
At this conference two years ago, Zelensky pleaded for international support just days before Russia’s full-scale invasion. At that time, Harris and other U.S. officials promised never to let Ukraine down. This year, Zelensky is even more desperate, in part owing to Washington dysfunction. Ammunition shortages caused by delays in U.S. assistance are already costing lives on the battlefield. Russia is taking advantage by ramping up attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Harris and Blinken are planning to tell Zelensky that help is on the way. But is it? U.S. officials will point to this week’s 70-29 Senate vote to approve a supplemental funding bill that includes about $60 billion related to Ukraine as evidence that everything will turn out fine.
“Our allies understand that we have domestic politics just as they do, and they can look at progress through our Congress,” Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs James O’Brien told reporters Tuesday. “I believe the U.S. will do the right thing.”
In Congress, confidence is less abundant. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has declared he won’t take up the Senate bill, and is under pressure from his MAGA members to not pass any Ukraine aid at all. Privately, he is telling his caucus he will write his own bill and that process won’t even start until next month, congressional sources told me.
So much for the short term. European allies are simultaneously freaking out about the United States’ long-term commitment to the continent after former president Donald Trump threatened during a campaign rally this week to leave NATO countries to the whims of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Regarding that, U.S. officials in Munich will try to calm nerves by pointing out that a majority of Americans still support NATO. But they can’t say Trump won’t win and they can’t be sure Trump won’t make good on such threats.
“I can’t make any promises, and I won’t make any promises. But we are fighting really hard for the Ukraine aid,” Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a member of the House delegation in Munich, told me. “We are going there to show that America still has folks who are eager to engage and are pushing hard for America to lead.”
Crow traveled to Kyiv and met with Zelensky last week, along with Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.). Hill told me he is trying to educate his GOP colleagues about how the aid is spent and monitored.
More than half of it goes back into the U.S. economy via weapons purchases or to replenish U.S. weapons stocks. European countries contribute more total financial aid than the United States and several give a higher share of their gross domestic product.
Moreover, the consequences of pulling support now would be drastic. The Ukrainian economy could collapse, causing a ripple effect throughout Europe and the world. The prospect of living (or dying) under Russian occupation could push millions more Ukrainian refugees into Europe with destabilizing effects. NATO allies would lose faith in the alliance’s credibility. Autocrats in the Middle East and Asia would be emboldened.
“The American people don’t want Putin to win. They know this is bad for our national security,” Hill told me. “It’s time to put an end to Russian adventurism.”
For the MAGA crowd, none of these considerations seem to matter. For them, ending the Ukraine aid effort is the goal. And to win, all they must do is stop the government from functioning. To a large degree, they have already succeeded. Owing to their obstructionism, Congress has not passed any Ukraine appropriations in the past 14 months.
This sad state of affairs is not primarily the Biden administration’s fault. But rather than pretend everything will be fine, the Biden team ought to be more honest with its allies. The Ukraine aid is not coming soon. It might not come at all. Trump might win. He might pull the United States out of NATO.
These are all scenarios that many people in both parties in Washington will try to prevent. But if the Biden team would admit that these scenarios might not be avoidable, at least Europeans and Ukrainians could proceed with prudent hedging and contingency planning.
For more than six decades, U.S. officials have been traveling to Munich to make sure Europeans know that in the end, the United States will “do the right thing” — sometimes after exhausting all other options. This year, that simply might not be true.
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