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Suozzi’s victory continues a streak of Democratic victories in special elections. These contests “are instructive, but not always predictive,” former congressman Steve Israel, who once represented the district and who also led the Democrats’ House campaign operation, told me on Wednesday morning.
For one thing, Suozzi is a centrist and familiar to the voters: He has served as a congressman, Nassau County executive and mayor of Glen Cove. His GOP opponent was second-term Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip, a virtual unknown. On TV, Democrats outspent Republicans by nearly 2 to 1.
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Nevertheless, Suozzi’s messaging on the issues is worth highlighting. Though Nassau County is thousands of miles from the Mexican border, illegal immigration dominated the race. That is because people in the district have been “waking up several times a week in real time to see busloads of migrants arriving in New York City,” Israel said. Pilip, herself an immigrant who was born in Ethiopia, contended: “Joe Biden and Tom Suozzi have brought the border crisis to our front door.”
Suozzi’s smartest move was to lean into the issue, even as Republicans tried to pin it on him with attack ads. He described it as a crisis of “epic proportions” and called upon the Biden administration to close the border temporarily. “The problem has been foisted on the city of New York, the state of New York, and other states by the federal government because they failed to address this issue for such a long period of time,” he said.
When Pilip came out against a bipartisan deal to spend more than $20 billion to toughen border security and step up deportations — echoing former president Donald Trump’s criticism that it didn’t go far enough — Suozzi accused her of joining “the extreme members of the Republican Party and the bosses in the House” and putting partisanship over solving the problem.
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For too long, Democrats preferred to dismiss the chaos that was taking place at the border or contend that the right was ginning up the issue. These days, though, Democrats have a solid argument to make that it is Republicans who are not taking it seriously enough, using the crisis as political fodder for the election rather than doing what is possible to fix it now.
Further underscoring this was the effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, which passed the House by a single vote shortly before polls closed in New York after failing a week before. It was a stunt and an abuse of one of the most solemn responsibilities that the Constitution gives the House of Representatives. Mayorkas stands no chance of being convicted in the Senate for simply carrying out the policies of the president.
There is no formula for victory that works everywhere, but Suozzi’s win has given congressional Democrats a template for how to handle an issue that Republicans will be pressing hard in swing districts across the country this year. It also provides, as Israel pointed out, “a playbook for President Biden.” Refuse to cede the ground and stand ready to hit back.
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It is easy — and tempting — to over-interpret the results of special elections, which take place outside the normal political season rhythms and are therefore showered with outsize amounts of money and attention.
But Democrat Tom Suozzi’s solid victory on Tuesday in the New York election to replace disgraced Republican George Santos does hold some lessons for his party — should it decide to heed them.
The Long Island district, which includes Nassau County and a slice of Queens, is historically Democratic but has been trending Republican in recent years. This is exactly the kind of upscale suburban area that President Biden and down-ballot Democrats are going to have to win in November.
In the near term, the flip of one House seat also adds to the headaches of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and makes the idea that Republicans “control” the chamber even hollower. So narrow is his majority now that he can only afford to lose two members of the dysfunctional Republican conference on any given vote.
Republicans were stunned at the result. Public polls and their own internal ones showed the New York race closer than it turned out to be (nearly complete results had Suozzi winning by almost eight points). “No one saw it coming last night,” former congressman Peter T. King, who once represented much of the district, told me. “I thought this was definitely a red wave.”
Suozzi’s victory continues a streak of Democratic victories in special elections. These contests “are instructive, but not always predictive,” former congressman Steve Israel, who once represented the district and who also led the Democrats’ House campaign operation, told me on Wednesday morning.
For one thing, Suozzi is a centrist and familiar to the voters: He has served as a congressman, Nassau County executive and mayor of Glen Cove. His GOP opponent was second-term Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip, a virtual unknown. On TV, Democrats outspent Republicans by nearly 2 to 1.
Nevertheless, Suozzi’s messaging on the issues is worth highlighting. Though Nassau County is thousands of miles from the Mexican border, illegal immigration dominated the race. That is because people in the district have been “waking up several times a week in real time to see busloads of migrants arriving in New York City,” Israel said. Pilip, herself an immigrant who was born in Ethiopia, contended: “Joe Biden and Tom Suozzi have brought the border crisis to our front door.”
Suozzi’s smartest move was to lean into the issue, even as Republicans tried to pin it on him with attack ads. He described it as a crisis of “epic proportions” and called upon the Biden administration to close the border temporarily. “The problem has been foisted on the city of New York, the state of New York, and other states by the federal government because they failed to address this issue for such a long period of time,” he said.
When Pilip came out against a bipartisan deal to spend more than $20 billion to toughen border security and step up deportations — echoing former president Donald Trump’s criticism that it didn’t go far enough — Suozzi accused her of joining “the extreme members of the Republican Party and the bosses in the House” and putting partisanship over solving the problem.
For too long, Democrats preferred to dismiss the chaos that was taking place at the border or contend that the right was ginning up the issue. These days, though, Democrats have a solid argument to make that it is Republicans who are not taking it seriously enough, using the crisis as political fodder for the election rather than doing what is possible to fix it now.
Further underscoring this was the effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, which passed the House by a single vote shortly before polls closed in New York after failing a week before. It was a stunt and an abuse of one of the most solemn responsibilities that the Constitution gives the House of Representatives. Mayorkas stands no chance of being convicted in the Senate for simply carrying out the policies of the president.
There is no formula for victory that works everywhere, but Suozzi’s win has given congressional Democrats a template for how to handle an issue that Republicans will be pressing hard in swing districts across the country this year. It also provides, as Israel pointed out, “a playbook for President Biden.” Refuse to cede the ground and stand ready to hit back.
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