Need something to talk about? Text us for thought-provoking opinions that can break any awkward silence.ArrowRight
The reason? Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is Prabowo’s vice-presidential running mate. And Gibran’s presence on the ticket heralds the emergence of a new political dynasty in the world’s fourth most populous country and third-largest democracy.
It also heralds a worrisome development for not only Indonesia but also the other developing democracies of Southeast Asia. As democracies around the globe face growing threats — including in the United States and Europe — the world hardly needs more democratic backsliding. But that could already be happening in Southeast Asia, where democracy remains fragile — and politics is increasingly a family business.
Advertisement
In the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the son and namesake of the late deposed dictator whose tenure in the 1970s and ’80s is synonymous with kleptocracy and martial law brutality. Marcos Jr., known as “Bongbong,” won in a landslide last year to replace popular but term-limited President Rodrigo Duterte. Marcos Jr.’s path was made easier when he named Duterte’s daughter Sara as his vice-presidential running mate.
This year’s elections in Thailand saw the return to power of the Shinawatra clan. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was named leader of the Pheu Thai party, which came in second in the voting. Pheu Thai was then able to outmaneuver the first-place party, Move Forward, to form a new government in alliance with the military.
After 15 years in self-imposed exile, Thaksin was able to make a triumphal return to his country when Thailand’s king reduced his eight-year prison sentence for corruption and abuse of power. He has since started to reassert control of the party he has long bankrolled.
Advertisement
And this past summer, Cambodia’s longtime prime minister, Hun Sen, finally stepped down after more than three decades in power, while maintaining control of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party — and naming his son Hun Manet as his successor as prime minister.
The Cambodian parliamentary election, neither free nor fair, was characterized by the ascension of the children of many of Hun Sen’s longtime cronies, who are joining Hun Manet in the new cabinet. Tea Seiha took over as defense minister from his father, Tea Banh. Interior Minister Sar Kheng handed over his job to his son Sar Sokha.
Many countries have prominent political dynasties — Canada has the Trudeaus, India the Gandhi family, and the United States, of course, has the Kennedys, the Bushes and the Clintons. America’s families, however, have lately fallen on harder times at the ballot box. Think Jeb and George P. Bush, or Hillary Clinton. The Kennedy dynasty, meanwhile, is divided, with many prominent members publicly distancing themselves from the conspiracy-driven independent presidential campaign of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Advertisement
In Southeast Asia, by contrast, political dynasties are thriving. In this region long dominated by military regimes, elections — even manipulated ones — became more common after the 1990s and the end of the Cold War, when a wave of democratization swept across the globe. But democratic norms and institutions, including political parties, remain far less developed than elsewhere, making name recognition and pedigree the key routes to political power. The dynasties also reflect the persistently high level of inequality in the region, where wealth, educational opportunities and political power remain the privilege of a tiny number of elite families.
Share this articleShare
Take Cambodia, one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia. Almost all the young scions taking over ministries there have benefited from an overseas education. Hun Manet, the new prime minister, graduated from the U.S. Military Academy and earned a master’s degree from New York University and a doctorate from the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom — opportunities most Cambodians can only dream of.
Putting relatives in key political positions is a way for leaders to extend their influence beyond their terms, protect their legacies — and, in some cases, guard the family wealth.
Advertisement
But dynasties keep politics in the region stultified and stunted, perpetuating inequality, entrenching elites and heightening the chances for corruption. If the pattern persists, ordinary people could become disillusioned with democracy at a time when China is pushing its authoritarian system as a model and populism is on the rise worldwide.
If the emergence of the Indonesian president’s son as a potential vice president was a surprise, it was because the election of Jokowi, a political outsider, was supposed to mark a turn away from dynasties.
The 30-year authoritarian regime of President Suharto was toppled in 1998 by a popular revolt against corruption, collusion and nepotism. After Suharto, a program called “decentralization” ushered in nationwide regional elections and the emergence of a new crop of politicians with no pedigree or military connections — including Jokowi, a onetime furniture-maker born in a slum who became governor of Jakarta.
Advertisement
Jokowi’s son Gibran, 36, who ran a chain of pancake restaurants and serves as mayor of Surakarta, did not meet the legal minimum age of 40 to run for president or vice president. But the country’s top judge made a special exception for him. Suspicions of a family deal were raised because the judge, Anwar Usman, is Jokowi’s brother-in-law.
The family ploy might not work if, as some polls suggest, Indonesian voters are turned off by having the outgoing president’s son run for the country’s second-highest office. The elections in February might see Indonesia finally break the region’s mold of dynastic politics and give democracy a needed boost. But the elections could also show that old-style elite politics remains entrenched, just with new faces and new families.
Indonesians will be electing a new president, parliament and regional officials. The future of democracy across the region might hinge on their choices.
Share Comments
Popular opinions articles
HAND CURATED
- Opinion|If attitudes don’t shift, a political dating mismatch will threaten marriage November 22, 2023Opinion|If attitudes don’t shift, a political dating mismatch will threaten marriage November 22, 2023
- Opinion|Biden’s bear hug worked with IsraelNovember 27, 2023Opinion|Biden’s bear hug worked with IsraelNovember 27, 2023
- Opinion|A fraught battlespace awaits Israel after the pauseNovember 25, 2023Opinion|A fraught battlespace awaits Israel after the pauseNovember 25, 2023
View 3 more stories
Loading...
Indonesian President Joko Widodo — known as Jokowi — is barred from running for a third term next year. So far, he is officially neutral on a successor but has signaled that he is leaning toward his defense minister and erstwhile rival, Prabowo Subianto.
The reason? Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is Prabowo’s vice-presidential running mate. And Gibran’s presence on the ticket heralds the emergence of a new political dynasty in the world’s fourth most populous country and third-largest democracy.
It also heralds a worrisome development for not only Indonesia but also the other developing democracies of Southeast Asia. As democracies around the globe face growing threats — including in the United States and Europe — the world hardly needs more democratic backsliding. But that could already be happening in Southeast Asia, where democracy remains fragile — and politics is increasingly a family business.
In the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the son and namesake of the late deposed dictator whose tenure in the 1970s and ’80s is synonymous with kleptocracy and martial law brutality. Marcos Jr., known as “Bongbong,” won in a landslide last year to replace popular but term-limited President Rodrigo Duterte. Marcos Jr.’s path was made easier when he named Duterte’s daughter Sara as his vice-presidential running mate.
This year’s elections in Thailand saw the return to power of the Shinawatra clan. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was named leader of the Pheu Thai party, which came in second in the voting. Pheu Thai was then able to outmaneuver the first-place party, Move Forward, to form a new government in alliance with the military.
After 15 years in self-imposed exile, Thaksin was able to make a triumphal return to his country when Thailand’s king reduced his eight-year prison sentence for corruption and abuse of power. He has since started to reassert control of the party he has long bankrolled.
And this past summer, Cambodia’s longtime prime minister, Hun Sen, finally stepped down after more than three decades in power, while maintaining control of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party — and naming his son Hun Manet as his successor as prime minister.
The Cambodian parliamentary election, neither free nor fair, was characterized by the ascension of the children of many of Hun Sen’s longtime cronies, who are joining Hun Manet in the new cabinet. Tea Seiha took over as defense minister from his father, Tea Banh. Interior Minister Sar Kheng handed over his job to his son Sar Sokha.
Many countries have prominent political dynasties — Canada has the Trudeaus, India the Gandhi family, and the United States, of course, has the Kennedys, the Bushes and the Clintons. America’s families, however, have lately fallen on harder times at the ballot box. Think Jeb and George P. Bush, or Hillary Clinton. The Kennedy dynasty, meanwhile, is divided, with many prominent members publicly distancing themselves from the conspiracy-driven independent presidential campaign of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
In Southeast Asia, by contrast, political dynasties are thriving. In this region long dominated by military regimes, elections — even manipulated ones — became more common after the 1990s and the end of the Cold War, when a wave of democratization swept across the globe. But democratic norms and institutions, including political parties, remain far less developed than elsewhere, making name recognition and pedigree the key routes to political power. The dynasties also reflect the persistently high level of inequality in the region, where wealth, educational opportunities and political power remain the privilege of a tiny number of elite families.
Take Cambodia, one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia. Almost all the young scions taking over ministries there have benefited from an overseas education. Hun Manet, the new prime minister, graduated from the U.S. Military Academy and earned a master’s degree from New York University and a doctorate from the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom — opportunities most Cambodians can only dream of.
Putting relatives in key political positions is a way for leaders to extend their influence beyond their terms, protect their legacies — and, in some cases, guard the family wealth.
But dynasties keep politics in the region stultified and stunted, perpetuating inequality, entrenching elites and heightening the chances for corruption. If the pattern persists, ordinary people could become disillusioned with democracy at a time when China is pushing its authoritarian system as a model and populism is on the rise worldwide.
If the emergence of the Indonesian president’s son as a potential vice president was a surprise, it was because the election of Jokowi, a political outsider, was supposed to mark a turn away from dynasties.
The 30-year authoritarian regime of President Suharto was toppled in 1998 by a popular revolt against corruption, collusion and nepotism. After Suharto, a program called “decentralization” ushered in nationwide regional elections and the emergence of a new crop of politicians with no pedigree or military connections — including Jokowi, a onetime furniture-maker born in a slum who became governor of Jakarta.
Jokowi’s son Gibran, 36, who ran a chain of pancake restaurants and serves as mayor of Surakarta, did not meet the legal minimum age of 40 to run for president or vice president. But the country’s top judge made a special exception for him. Suspicions of a family deal were raised because the judge, Anwar Usman, is Jokowi’s brother-in-law.
The family ploy might not work if, as some polls suggest, Indonesian voters are turned off by having the outgoing president’s son run for the country’s second-highest office. The elections in February might see Indonesia finally break the region’s mold of dynastic politics and give democracy a needed boost. But the elections could also show that old-style elite politics remains entrenched, just with new faces and new families.
Indonesians will be electing a new president, parliament and regional officials. The future of democracy across the region might hinge on their choices.
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Rami G Khouri
Donald Low
Mort Laitner
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Nikkei Editorial
Michael Kwet
visit website
