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Yet despite Biden’s unprecedented vulnerabilities, Donald Trump is currently leading him by just 1.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average — a statistical tie. The Republican front-runner should be crushing Biden in the polls, but he’s not. Why? Because Trump is nearly as unpopular as Biden.
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Right now, Trump benefits from having been out of the daily media spotlight for the past three years. But as his trials begin and he starts to campaign in earnest, Americans will be reminded why they threw him out in 2020. And, as they do in every presidential election, the polls will tighten before November. Trump’s current narrow lead has some Democrats panicking that Biden might lose. In truth, it is Republicans who should be panicking that Biden might win.
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It doesn’t have to be this way. The election will be decided by a few thousand swing voters in a handful of battleground states. Democrats were shocked by the results of a November New York Times-Siena College poll that showed Trump narrowly leading Biden in key battleground states. Well, that same poll showed Nikki Haley defeating Biden by 7 points in Arizona (compared with 5 points for Trump), 10 points in Michigan (compared with 5 points for Trump), 10 points in Pennsylvania (compared with 4 points for Trump) and 13 points in Wisconsin (where Trump loses by 2 points).
The poll also found that “a majority of swing state voters view [Trump] negatively.” Do Republicans want a nominee these voters will have to choke down their bile to vote for? Or do they want a nominee they can enthusiastically support? Numerous polls show Haley defeating Biden by double digits, the only GOP contender with such a lead. A December Wall Street Journal poll finds her ahead of Biden by 17 points (13 points more than Trump in the same poll). Haley also leads Biden by 10 points in the December Messenger-HarrisX poll, and 12 points in the November Marquette poll.
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The choice is simple: One GOP candidate is neck-and-neck with the most unpopular president in modern history, and one crushes him. Ask most Democrats which Republican they fear most as the GOP nominee, and the answer is Haley. And yet Republicans seem poised to nominate Trump, the one candidate as unpopular as Biden.
This works to the Democrats’ advantage. Recall that during the 2024 midterms, Democrats spent tens of millions of dollars supporting MAGA candidates in GOP primaries, hoping to get “poison pill” candidates nominated. The strategy was immoral, cynical and highly effective. All the Democratic-backed MAGA candidates won their GOP primaries and then lost in the general election.
Now, instead of ads, the weapon of choice is lawfare. Trump has been charged 91 times at the federal, state and local level. (To put this in perspective, the Unabomber faced just 13 charges). And in states across the country, local Democratic officials and left-wing activists are trying to use a 14th Amendment provision to kick him off the ballot. Trump’s support among Republicans grows stronger with each legal assault on him, which is exactly what Democratic leaders want, because they believe he is the easiest GOP candidate to beat.
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Republican voters need to decide: Are they going to fall for the trap? Is avenging Trump more important than beating Biden? The stakes could not be higher. Biden is the most disastrous president in my lifetime. And if he wins, chances are that he might not complete his second term. Just look at how he has declined over the past three years — how his gait has stiffened and his ability to answer simple questions has declined. If Biden is reelected, it’s highly likely that Kamala D. Harris will assume the presidency.
As Republicans begin to caucus and vote, they have a choice to make. Choose wisely, and we could have the red wave Republicans hoped for two years ago. Choose poorly, and get ready for a second Biden term.
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As Republican voters prepare to pick their presidential nominee, they should ask themselves a simple question: Do you want the 2024 election to be a toss-up or a landslide?
Joe Biden is the most vulnerable incumbent in modern presidential history. He has the lowest approval rating recorded for any president since the end of World War II. He has double-digit disapproval on every issue voters say is important to them — from the economy to inflation, crime, immigration and foreign policy. A Monmouth University poll finds 76 percent of voters say he is “too old to effectively serve another term,” while, according to a Yahoo News-YouGov poll, 54 percent say he no longer has “the competence to carry out the job of president.” No president seeking reelection has ever been weaker.
Yet despite Biden’s unprecedented vulnerabilities, Donald Trump is currently leading him by just 1.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average — a statistical tie. The Republican front-runner should be crushing Biden in the polls, but he’s not. Why? Because Trump is nearly as unpopular as Biden.
Right now, Trump benefits from having been out of the daily media spotlight for the past three years. But as his trials begin and he starts to campaign in earnest, Americans will be reminded why they threw him out in 2020. And, as they do in every presidential election, the polls will tighten before November. Trump’s current narrow lead has some Democrats panicking that Biden might lose. In truth, it is Republicans who should be panicking that Biden might win.
It doesn’t have to be this way. The election will be decided by a few thousand swing voters in a handful of battleground states. Democrats were shocked by the results of a November New York Times-Siena College poll that showed Trump narrowly leading Biden in key battleground states. Well, that same poll showed Nikki Haley defeating Biden by 7 points in Arizona (compared with 5 points for Trump), 10 points in Michigan (compared with 5 points for Trump), 10 points in Pennsylvania (compared with 4 points for Trump) and 13 points in Wisconsin (where Trump loses by 2 points).
The poll also found that “a majority of swing state voters view [Trump] negatively.” Do Republicans want a nominee these voters will have to choke down their bile to vote for? Or do they want a nominee they can enthusiastically support? Numerous polls show Haley defeating Biden by double digits, the only GOP contender with such a lead. A December Wall Street Journal poll finds her ahead of Biden by 17 points (13 points more than Trump in the same poll). Haley also leads Biden by 10 points in the December Messenger-HarrisX poll, and 12 points in the November Marquette poll.
The choice is simple: One GOP candidate is neck-and-neck with the most unpopular president in modern history, and one crushes him. Ask most Democrats which Republican they fear most as the GOP nominee, and the answer is Haley. And yet Republicans seem poised to nominate Trump, the one candidate as unpopular as Biden.
This works to the Democrats’ advantage. Recall that during the 2024 midterms, Democrats spent tens of millions of dollars supporting MAGA candidates in GOP primaries, hoping to get “poison pill” candidates nominated. The strategy was immoral, cynical and highly effective. All the Democratic-backed MAGA candidates won their GOP primaries and then lost in the general election.
Now, instead of ads, the weapon of choice is lawfare. Trump has been charged 91 times at the federal, state and local level. (To put this in perspective, the Unabomber faced just 13 charges). And in states across the country, local Democratic officials and left-wing activists are trying to use a 14th Amendment provision to kick him off the ballot. Trump’s support among Republicans grows stronger with each legal assault on him, which is exactly what Democratic leaders want, because they believe he is the easiest GOP candidate to beat.
Republican voters need to decide: Are they going to fall for the trap? Is avenging Trump more important than beating Biden? The stakes could not be higher. Biden is the most disastrous president in my lifetime. And if he wins, chances are that he might not complete his second term. Just look at how he has declined over the past three years — how his gait has stiffened and his ability to answer simple questions has declined. If Biden is reelected, it’s highly likely that Kamala D. Harris will assume the presidency.
As Republicans begin to caucus and vote, they have a choice to make. Choose wisely, and we could have the red wave Republicans hoped for two years ago. Choose poorly, and get ready for a second Biden term.
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